Overview:

鈥 The article explores the historical context of former U.S. presidents running for nonconsecutive terms, highlighting Donald Trump's 2024 candidacy.
鈥 It discusses instances like Martin Van Buren and Theodore Roosevelt, whose campaigns transformed voter behavior and party alignments.
鈥 Trump's current situation echoes past elections, raising questions on Republican loyalty and potential impacts on upcoming elections.
鈥 Historical parallels emphasize the complexity of voter decisions amid political shifts.

By Graeme Mack, University of Richmond

Theodore Roosevelt speaks during the Progressive campaign of 1912.

has a former president, Donald Trump, running for a nonconsecutive term. It鈥檚 the fifth time in U.S. history that鈥檚 happened.

Historically, a former president running for a nonconsecutive term has prompted voters to change their party allegiances.

In 1848, Martin Van Buren, a former Democratic president, ran as and attracted many Northern Democrats who had grown disillusioned with their party鈥檚 pro-slavery stance. The outperformed Democrats in three Northern states and enabled the other major party, the Whigs, to win the presidency.

And in 1856, former Whig President Millard Fillmore headed the newly formed American Party, otherwise known as the . When faced with a choice between two candidates, Fillmore and Democrat James Buchanan, who both seemed deeply complicit with slavery鈥檚 expansion, for the new antislavery Republican Party.

Fillmore鈥檚 candidacy in 1856 made a Republican sweep of the North virtually impossible, ensuring victory for Buchanan, who only won 45% of the popular vote.

Theodore Roosevelt鈥檚 run in 1912 also saw dramatic changes in voter behavior. With the former president on the ballot, millions of voters cast ballots for the other major party or a brand new party.

By this time, Roosevelt had become one of the . Reformers praised his ability to attract attention and build support for progressive causes.

These characteristics repulsed conservative Republicans and traditional Democrats who feared Roosevelt鈥檚 return to power.

After failing to secure the Republican nomination, Roosevelt headed the newly formed Progressive Party, winning six states and 88 electoral votes, the strongest showing for a third party candidate ever.

However, the split in the Republican ranks enabled Democrats to win by .

One former president ran for a nonconsecutive second term and won: whose two terms ran from 1885-1889 and 1893-1897.

The rise of progressivism

When Roosevelt ran in 1912, he saw a society convulsed by rapid change.

Between 1870 and 1900, the from roughly 38 million to more than 76 million.

During this time, business transformed from small-scale manufacturing and local trade to huge corporations and factory-based manufacturing.

From 1900 to 1915, another .

A political reform movement known as emerged across political parties. It sought to address problems with , , political corruption, industrialization and the concentration of corporate power.

Roosevelt鈥檚 political career tapped into progressivism鈥檚 growing momentum. First elected vice president as a Republican in 1900, he assumed the presidency in September 1901 after the .

Campaigning on his progressive 鈥溾 鈥 focused on consumer protections, control of large corporations and conservation of natural resources 鈥 in 1904, the popular incumbent won reelection in the largest electoral landslide the country had seen.

But in 1908, Roosevelt declined to run for a third term. Instead, he advocated successfully for William Howard Taft, his secretary of war.

However, as took shape, Roosevelt grew dissatisfied with him. What most frustrated Roosevelt was to advance progressive goals.

Seeing an urgent need for forceful presidential leadership, Roosevelt for the Republican nomination in 1912.

Cartoon of a man in a tophat acting surprised as he encounters a scrawny cat.
A political cartoon from 1912 illustrating Theodore Roosevelt鈥檚 dissatisfaction with how President William Howard Taft carried out his policies.

At the Republican National Convention, however, party leaders rejected Roosevelt and confirmed Taft鈥檚 nomination. Roosevelt鈥檚 supporters stormed out, complaining that leaders had manipulated rules and procedures to block the former president.

Despite his loss of the nomination, Roosevelt assured his supporters that he felt as 鈥溾 and expressed interest in 鈥渂olting鈥 from the Republican Party.

Roosevelt鈥檚 threat to leave his party was echoed more than 100 years later by another former president running for a nonconsecutive term. In late 2023, in the Republican presidential primary debates and refused to rule out the possibility of running as an independent.

In doing so, Trump鈥檚 candidacy hampered efforts to seek an alternative candidate. It also disregarded opportunities to win over skeptical Republicans.

The rise of the Bull Moose Party

In a matter of weeks after Roosevelt failed to get the Republican nomination, the Progressive Party, popularly known as the , held its national convention and nominated Roosevelt as its first presidential candidate.

His did not lack for energy or spectacle. In October 1912, the immediately after being shot in an assassination attempt.

He told his supporters, 鈥.鈥

Theodore Roosevelt arrives at a hospital.
Theodore Roosevelt arrives at a hospital after New York saloon keeper John F. Schrank attempted to assassinate him in Milwaukee in 1912.

Like the , this attack drew condemnation and galvanized the former president鈥檚 core supporters.

Roosevelt faced off on Election Day against the Republican incumbent, William Howard Taft; , the Socialist Party candidate; and the Democratic candidate, .

Many Republicans cast their ballots for Wilson, seeing his candidacy as more viable than Roosevelt鈥檚. Some did so out of disgust for what they saw as Roosevelt鈥檚 egotistical and radical campaign.

The split in the Republican Party created an opportunity for Democrats, who had been shut out of the presidency for decades.

The legacy of 1912

On election day, Democrat Wilson won 40 states and earned 435 electoral votes. Democrats also .

However, Wilson prevailed with less than 42% of the national vote, the smallest share won by a president since .

A unified Republican ticket would very likely have prevailed in 1912.

Taft blamed Roosevelt for to stave off a Progressive win.

Historical parallels are never perfect. However, the 1912 election invites some comparison, as one of the world鈥檚 most famous men runs for the third time for the presidency.

The . Wary of Trump鈥檚 return to power, will disillusioned Republicans vote for Democratic Party nominee Kamala Harris, choose a third-party candidate, or sit out the election?

This article is republished from , a nonprofit, independent news organization bringing you facts and trustworthy analysis to help you make sense of our complex world. It was written by: ,

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Graeme Mack does not work for, consult, own shares in or receive funding from any company or organization that would benefit from this article, and has disclosed no relevant affiliations beyond their academic appointment.

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